Yes, we all know there’s a recession. Yes, we all know Oregon’s in the toilet. Yep, we know that PDX retail businesses are giving up the ghost in masses; the empty storefronts in downtown, the Pearl and NW 23rd remind us of the ‘here on top today, gone tomorrow’ transient nature that even the most supposedly recession-impervious businesses are falling victim to.
It seems like every time I turn around, I hear of another business and/or government entity going up in flames. Worse, there are the companies silently moving to monthly furloughs, dropping full-time staffers to 75%, freezing raises/cost-of-living increases, or deferring needed capital expenditures until ‘later.’
Schools are slashing services… governments are prepping for massive layoffs… and social service agencies warn of upping the bars for those who most need assistance.
On a personal note, I can count at least 10 people I know in the space of 3 minutes who are either unemployed, under-employed, or tenuously holding on to a no-longer-sure thing.
But…then I watch smart people that I personally know in the technology sector, for example, hitting solid doubles (if not home runs), putting together strategic alliances that look like they’re based on substance, or start-ups pulling in venture capital money — yes, even now.
And I count at least 10 people I know in the next 3 minutes who’ve moved into exciting new gigs, or moved from that no-longer-sure thing into something that provides both monetary and emotional sustenance. Or who’ve tightened their belts, cut out the frills, and/or re-shifted their priorities — and are doing just fine.
Finally, I look around a bit.
While plenty of commercial space is still gathering dust, several of those formerly boarded up storefronts are now flipping over into vibrant new businesses.
Or I look at the crowds of people lining up to eat at restaurants all around town. The people piling vast quantities of disposable goods into oversized carts at Costco. Government officials who think that million dollar baseball stadiums and/or revamping a stadium for MLS is a higher priority than, say, social services, fixing potholes, or caring for the homeless.
Or those with decent jobs who have the modesty to duck and/or not gloat about their good fortune, even while their friends struggle to find new gigs (survivor guilt runs deep in PDX these days, I suspect.)
So, what’s up? Is it really as bad as it looks out there? Is it simply that the weaker entities are getting pruned out? Are we all getting sucked into the ‘doom and gloom’ media horror stories, so we’re willing to throw schoolchildren under the bus?
Or is it just another case of ‘all of the above’ — with no clear answers in sight?
I’m trying to figure this out — because I’m scared.
I’m just not sure if I’m dealing with a healthy fear or irrational skepticism…
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I’m in what I considered a fairly stable job, but school finances being the way they are, who knows? The school district could decide to eliminate or scale back my position – it’s happened to other people I know already.
I’m not freaking out about it, which is good, but maybe we should be doing more to prepare for the worst.
Betsy, I think you get to come to the OurPDX birthday party whether you post or not. (I think.) But you did a damn fine job of knocking on out of the park, just to be safe.
Yes, it’s really that bad. Those people lining up at the restaurants (and I don’t think there are as many as there were even a few months ago) aren’t ordering as much, they’re sharing meals and just having the water to drink – hey, you’ve still got to try to get out to try to have a good time so you don’t go crazy, but you can do it without spending much at all.
Then again, I know we’re pulling back even on those cheap eat-out nights. The feeling I get is that this… whatever-you-want-to-call-it economic situation… is going to last for a whole lot longer. In fact we may be heading for what some economists call “a new normal”. In a lot of ways we’ve lived beyond our means for way too long so maybe a “new normal” with less stuff would be good for our finances and our environment.
Yes, the Reductive Labs guys got their $2mil – good for them. But don’t think that’s normative at this point. The reason they got funding is because their product has the potential to save companies a lot of money (by getting by with less people) and that’s something that’s hot right now. Not saying that’s bad, it just is. If you want to get your venture funded at this point, you need to be coming up with an idea that can save a lot of $$.
As for personal finances: I think a lot of us geeks who were around PDX during the worst of the tech wreck (2002-2003) learned that there’s no such thing as a “sure thing”. We learned to save up a large emergency fund because you can be unemployed in Portland for a long time. Personally, I’ve managed to save up about 2 years of living expenses. So far I’m still working, but there are no guarantees. If I find myself out of work in the next few months I’m not even likely to look for work because jobs are too few and far between – I’ll just figure that I’ve got 2 years to start bootstrapping some kind of biz. The good news is that this situation will eventually pass. It may take a few years, but eventually we’ll get back to reasonably good times… or maybe we’ll just readjust to the “new normal”.
Be frugal. Save as much money as you can if you’re still gainfully employed. Even if things don’t turn out to be as bad as we fear they will be, that’s good advice.
I do not feel that I am in a position to throw in my two cents here, but I was born and raised here in Portland- I’ll be 55 in August and I can tell you that I have worked most of my life here since age 16 in high tech computer positions, [20 years at Consolidated Frieghtways until 2000 the company bankrupted in 2002- This current problem did not start yesterday] and other various computer and technical careers. It is not an illusion what is happening. It is a serious problem. Do not think that with the second highest homeless population now in America next to LA, and the second highest unemployment rate per capita after Michigan that Portland is just fine. I can tell you that there is a serious problem that we never had before. America has never seen millions of homes in foreclosure and 15 million out of work with thousands of jobs outsourced permanently to overseas countries. Do you want to pretend this is not happening? I spoke on NPR’s Talk of the Nation of my 20 year designed and built home foreclosed last year. I am taking early retirement next month as it is near impossible for us elderly now who have worked our lives to be forced into taking early pensions. I am glad to have one but it is not enough to live on. My world famous astronomy art is only something I lecture about until it develops into more. -Mark
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